It's the year 2034, and the countdown to World War III begins when a water desalination plant in Eilat is hit by cruise missiles launched in a terrorist attack. In the "smart war" that follows, Israel is wiped out in a hail of ultra-sophisticated weaponry.
That's the core of a movie treatment called "Black Sun" that director Oliver Stone is considering for a new film project.
Artificial intelligence expert Bart Kosko, 34, of the University of Southern California, who wrote the treatment, stresses that the project is not certain to fly: He anticipates the special effects would push production costs to $ 100 million. And Stone has seen his last two planned films - "Evita" and "Noriega" - shot down because of budget bloat.
The earth of the "Black Sun" era has a population of 10 billion and barely enough oil for five years. Middle East oil-producing nations, seeing their source of wealth disappearing, become increasingly unstable. Terrorist groups become ever bolder and, because of the cheapness and ready availability of sophisticated weaponry, the threat to Israel ever greater.
Kosko, a former consultant on the Tomahawk cruise missile, notes Iran and Syria are working on smart cruise missiles that today cost over $ 1 million each. By the early 21st century, he told The Jerusalem Report, they could fall to $ 10,000. In the light of the perceived future threat, he offers some clear advice to Israel: "Shift more assets from ground forces to smart air defense."
Sheli Teitelbaum/Los Angeles